Cheltenham 2017: Tuesday’s Trends

Before you place your Festival bets get on the inside track and discover the trends behind the form guide.

 

Day 1 – Tuesday 14th March

13:30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

 

  • Nicky Henderson has trained a winner and ten 2nd/3rd/4th placed horses in the last ten years
  • No horse has won off the back of just one hurdles start since 1992
  • 18 of the last 20 winners won last time out
  • Only one horse to finish in the first three in the last nine years started their career on the Flat
  • 4 of the last 14 winners finished in the first five in the previous season’s Champion Bumper

 

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Trophy

  • Nicky Henderson is the race’s leading trainer with 5 winners
  • 16 of the last 17 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles
  • 24 of the last 26 winners started at no bigger than 11/1
  • 8 of the last 14 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  • Only one winner aged over eight since 1956
  • 15 of the last 22 winners had contested at least three chase starts

 

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

  • 7 of the last 9 winners were officially rated between 142-148
  • The last winner officially rated 150+ was back in 1983
  • Only 2 favourites have won since 1977 but 9 second-favourites have won since 1984
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 3 of the last 8 winners and also supplied 3 runners-up since 2002
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 13 runnings
  • Last-time-out winners have on 7 of the last 14 runnings from approximately 20% representation

 

15:30 Stan James Champion Hurdle

  • No unplaced horse from the previous season’s race has won for 23 years
  • Only 2 of the last 24 Christmas Hurdle winners to contest the race have won
  • Only 2 winners since 1993 did not run during the same calendar year
  • Just 1 five-year-old has won from 98 to try since 1985 (though 6 have been placed in the last ten years from 26 to try)
  • 7 Neptune winners since 1994 have won (3) or placed (4) plus Rock On Ruby was second in the Neptune and won the Champion Hurdle

Mr Green’s Champion Hurdle Price Boosts, prices subject to change, available on Tuesday 7th March only.

Buveur D’air 11/2 (win only)

Brain Power 10/1 (win only)

 

16:10 OLBG Mares Hurdle

  • Willie Mullins has trained the last 8 winners
  • Mullins aside, Irish-trained horses have also supplied three runners-up, four thirds and a fourth in the 9 runnings to date
  • All 9 winners were given hold-up rides
  • Novices have over-performed in general

 

16:50 J T McNamara National Hunt Chase

  • The last 14 winners had run at least three times over fences
  • Only 2 winners younger than seven from 74 runners from 1990 onwards
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners (4 for J P McManus) but Paul Nicholls is 0-17
  • 5 of the last 10 British-trained winners had run in a novice chase at Newbury
  • The favourite has won 3 of the 7 runnings since penalties were dispensed with
  • 4 of the last 6 winners had run in a Grade 1 novice chase

 

17:30 Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

  • 3 of the last 5 winners carried top weight
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • 8 of the 12 winners failed to win on either of their first two chase starts
  • Horses yet to win over fences won twice and also had a contender placed at worst for the last 7 years
  • 9 of the 12 winners started in the first six in the betting

 

Bet on the Cheltenham Festival with Mr Green here.

Mar 07, 2017