Cheltenham 2017: Thursday’s Trends

Who’s the most successful trainer? How old is the winner usually? These, and more questions answered as we look ahead to Day 3 of the Festival with all the trends you need to know.

 

13:30 JLT Novices’ Chase

  • Ireland have won 5 of the 6 runnings (3 for Willie Mullins)
  • The highest British-trained finisher for 4 of the first 6 runnings had won a chase at Cheltenham earlier in the campaign
  • 4 of the 6 winners won last time out
  • The last 4 winners had won a patter race over hurdles
  • The first two years were dominated by horses to run well at the Festival before and Vautour was recording his second Festival victory when a runaway winner two years ago

 

14:10 Pertemps Final

  • 10 of the last 21 winners also won on their previous outing
  • Horses aged 8+ winning seven of the last 11 runnings
  • Only 2 winners of any qualifier have gone on to also win the Final in the last 20 runnings
  • 3 of the last 8 winners with the first five in the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle at Haydock
  • 7 novices have won since 1991
  • No five-year-old has won since 1974

 

14:50 Ryanair Chase

  • 8 of the last 9 winners had already won a Grade 1 race
  • 11 of the 12 winners had won at Cheltenham before (as had 7 runners up)
  • 7 of the last 9 winners contested the King George VI Chase earlier in the season
  • 10 of the 12 winners raced prominently
  • 10 of the 12 winners started at no bigger than 6/1 (9 in the first two in the betting)
  • 4 of the last 9 winners contested the Ascot Chase run in February

 

15:30 Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle

  • 16 of the last 17 winners started in the first four in the betting
  • 13 second-season hurdlers have won since 1998
  • 10 of the last 20 winners and runners-up contested the Cleeve Hurdle
  • The last winner to run in the previous season’s race that failed to occupy one of the top two positions was back in 1981 (and he finished third)
  • Irish-trained horses have won just once since 1995 (7 runners up since then)
  • No five-year-old has won and just 1 winner aged 10+

 

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

  • 14 winners sent off at 20/1+ over the last 27 years
  • In the last 30 years only 2 winners were successful off an official rating of 143+
  • The Pipe family have struck seven times in total – four wins for Martin and three for David
  • Venetia Williams has trained three winners and six other placed horses from 19 runners
  • French-breds have been successful on 7 occasions going back to 1999 and recorded 7 runner-up positions on the ten occasions they have missed out
  • 17 of the last 18 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences

 

16:50 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

There aren’t any notable trends as this is only the second running of the race.

 

17:30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase

  • The 8 most recent winners all carried 11st 4lb+
  • Only 1 winner since 1985 did not contest a handicap last time out
  • 26 of the last 30 win-and-place positions were filled by non-claiming amateurs as were 9 of the last 11 winners
  • Donald McCain has saddled two winners and a close second
  • Seven of the last 12 winners contested a handicap chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season
  • 15 of the last 16 winners all ran over at least three miles last time out

 

Bet on the Cheltenham Festival with Mr Green here.

Mar 09, 2017